BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+8 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50-100 entries at the $25k decoration, then I will likely have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this battle goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win will be gearing up a guillotine. Aside from that, I think we have a fairly safe win here with Roberts and that’s what I am searching for. I need the safer wins in cash and I can be concerned about who is going to score the greatest in GPPs. I believe we can eliminate him in the GPPs in his price because when he puts up 90 DK points in a win then won’t win $25k. It will help us triumph in cash games though and I’d be surprised if he had a low scoring win here. I believe he’s excellent for 80-100 points here and I’m totally ok with this in my cash lineup.
GPP play of this week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP drama of this week and he has the highest ITD chances on the card in -222. This is a set up fight for him to receive a knockout and I think this is most likely going to take place in the very first round. That should put Hardy over 100 points and I am considering that. Hardy is going to be among my best plays of the week, but he is GPP only for me personally. We can’t trust him enough for cash games, so that is the reason why I enjoy Roberts longer in that arrangement. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they both win, and he is $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the top lineup and in spite of higher ownership we can win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he receives the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is strung in -130 and that is too good for me to pass on in GPPs.
Underdog drama of the week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) however DraftKings salaries do not change as soon as they’re released. We receive Teixeira here for $400 less costly than Cutelaba and he’s preferred to get the win. In addition, I believe he can win in the 1st round with a score and submission above 90 points. That would give him a good shot at being on the optimal lineup. I will be targeting both sides of the fight in GPPs since I don’t expect it to go all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is what I like the most and we need to own”underdogs” within our DK lineups with the $50k salary cap. I think the clear path to victory for Glover is to the floor and that is precisely what I anticipate his game must be. I enjoy him to get a entry win if he can land takedowns and he’ll be among my greatest owned underdogs this week.
Fade of this week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I know people were expecting me to put Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She’s a strong fade too… But I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and I will have zero lineups including her. Generally, Esparza is a good wrestler and we like wrestlers in DraftKings. I just don’t see wrestling in her very best interest against Jandiroba and that I think she uses her wrestling in shield to attempt to keep this fight on the toes. All the danger is on the ground in this matchup and Carla has the boxing of the two. I believe she could acquire a 30-27 striking decision but won’t score highly, and I would guess it puts up about ~60 DK points. That isn’t going to cut it at $8.2k so I simply don’t see the way she ends up on the $25k lineup this week even if she does win, and that is why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 69-44 to get +224.83u (+$22,483) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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